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Mastering Complexity
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![BA02.[Appendix 3] Sales Success Probability Decision System](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2FBA02_imp.png&w=3840&q=75)
BA02.[Appendix 3] Sales Success Probability Decision System
In the previous Parts 1 and 2 of the [BA02. Exa Bayesian Inference: The Invisible Hand of Sales—A 60-Day Gamble] episode, we explored how the Bayesian engine establishes 'prior beliefs' and tracks the trajectory of probabilities through 'signals' and 'silence.' Now, we hold in our hands the pure posterior probability $ P_{raw} $, precisely calculated by the Bayesian parameters α and β. However, it is not over yet. The final decision-making process remains. Even with a 60% probability, the weight of the decision can vary completely depending on whether it was derived from a single meeting or dozens of negotiations.
![BA02.[Appendix 1] The Bayesian Engine: Mathematical Alchemy for Managing Uncertainty](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2FBA02_1.png&w=3840&q=75)
BA02.[Appendix 1] The Bayesian Engine: Mathematical Alchemy for Managing Uncertainty
This article explains the mathematical principles and effectiveness of the Bayesian engine covered in the [BA02 Episode]. The goal is to precisely predict sales success probabilities in an uncertain business environment. At its core, it addresses the process of deriving optimal decision-making indicators by combining the Beta distribution, which quantifies past experiences, and the Binomial distribution, which captures real-time signals from the field. In particular, it emphasizes maximizing the system’s real-time performance and computational efficiency by utilizing Conjugate Prior distributions, which allow for immediate updates without complex calculations. Furthermore, this model adopts a Recursive Estimation method that makes immediate judgments whenever data occurs, securing technical validity optimized for modern business. Consequently, this document clearly demonstrates how sophisticated mathematical modeling transforms vague intuition into reliable, data-driven insights.
![BA01. [Mathematical Breakdown] The Short Shot](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2FBA012.png&w=3840&q=75)
BA01. [Mathematical Breakdown] The Short Shot
BA01. [Mathematical Breakdown] The Short Shot