Likelihood Posts
Mastering Complexity
Explore EXA's Unified Intelligence ecosystem that distills complex business environments into clear conclusions and redefine your enterprise strategy.
![[BA03. On-Time Risk: Appendix 1] Anatomy of the EXA Bayesian Engine: Mixture Distributions and Observational Deviation](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2FBA03_1.png&w=3840&q=75)
[BA03. On-Time Risk: Appendix 1] Anatomy of the EXA Bayesian Engine: Mixture Distributions and Observational Deviation
This is the first article in a technical explanation series identifying the operating principles of the EXA engine, which played a major role in the novel-style series [BA03 On-Time Material Inbound: Bayesian MCMC]. Since this series covers Mixture Distributions and MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) Gibbs Sampling—which are advanced techniques in Bayesian inference—the content may be deep and the calculation process somewhat complex. Therefore, we intend to approach this in a detailed, step-by-step manner to make it as digestible as possible, and it is expected to be a fairly long journey. We recommend reading the original novel first to understand the overall context. Furthermore, as Bayesian theory expands its concepts incrementally, reviewing the episodes and mathematical explanations of BA01 and BA02 beforehand will be much more helpful in grasping this content. The preceding mathematical concepts and logic are being carried forward.
![BA02.[Appendix 3] Sales Success Probability Decision System](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2FBA02_imp.png&w=3840&q=75)
BA02.[Appendix 3] Sales Success Probability Decision System
In the previous Parts 1 and 2 of the [BA02. Exa Bayesian Inference: The Invisible Hand of Sales—A 60-Day Gamble] episode, we explored how the Bayesian engine establishes 'prior beliefs' and tracks the trajectory of probabilities through 'signals' and 'silence.' Now, we hold in our hands the pure posterior probability $ P_{raw} $, precisely calculated by the Bayesian parameters α and β. However, it is not over yet. The final decision-making process remains. Even with a 60% probability, the weight of the decision can vary completely depending on whether it was derived from a single meeting or dozens of negotiations.